218.5 - Hard To Predict

I woke up this morning and I weighed 218.5. Surely I'm dehydrated.

In fact, I rowed a half marathon last night and completely soaked the clothes I was wearing. I fell into a deep sleep and woke up at 11a. I then went out and ran 4.5 miles.

I think my next 3 weeks of the bathroom board (which measures body fat and weight daily) should show me dropping about 5 pounds, which means I may see numbers down in the low teens; the next 3 week board (roughly 07-15 to 08-07) I expect to show me below 210 pounds.

I am now of the opinion that dropping from 223 I now weigh, down to 199, will likely produce a drop in body fat of ~3-4%; I expect the sub-20% body fat won't occur until about 185-190. My current prediction for body fat (caliper) / weight connections:

200 = 21.000%
190 = 19.000%
185 = 17.500%
180 = 15.000%
175 = 12.500%
170 = 10.000%
165 = 7.500%
160 = 5.000%

Obviously, the lighter I am the harder it will be to predict body fat. It also seems clear to me that body fat decrease is an inverse relationship -- that is, the more you weigh, the less your body fat drop per pound, the lighter you are, even a 5 pound drop could have a dramatic effect upon your body fat percentage. Or so goes my hypothesis.