Exercise is King

I did some calculations in the shower the other day. I figure I burn, via exercise alone, approximately 14,000 calories per week.

swim: 6,000 yards in ~2.5 hours; Figure, roughly, 400 cals/hr = 1,000 calories.
bike: 80 miles; roughly 80 cals per mile = 6,400 calories;
run: 10 miles per week = 180 cals / mile = 1800 calories.
aerobics: (this is the navy seal calistenthics/strength exercises) -- figure 400 cals per hour, and 1 hour per week = 400.
rowing: 40,000 meters per week, roughly 800 calories per 10k meters = ~3,200 calories.

total: 12,800 calories per week, give or take. So, I'm just shy of 2,000 calories per day in reality. Nonetheless that is A TON of caloric expenditure.

I've noticed a recent uptick in caloric consumption (something like 2,500 cals per day, rather than the stated 2,000 calories per day). But, given the expenditure probably not that big of a deal.

I'm still consuming lots of fruit (via homemade smoothies) and lots of veggies -- mostly via salad and frozen veggies. So this is good. Also, no more regular soda, diet soda instead. I hope to swap to water at some point, but for now, the most important thing is to reduce calories to effect weight loss.

SHORTS/CLOTHES


I have now begun to wear two pairs of shorts that I officially couldn't fit into just a few months ago. That's a nice feeling. They definitely make me look thinner to (to have shorts that are too big held tight to your body via belt is different than having snug shorts with a belt). I do have to admit that vanity sometimes plays a significant role in that which I do.

ROWING

The rowing experience has been much better than I expected. I seem to have lots of endurance -- and actually enjoy the rowing. I tend to do it while watching TV (instead of sitting on the couch).

FUTURE GOALS.

I've been tossing around future goals in my mind for the past week or so. . . and I come up with the following.

Thematically: I'd like to:
* reduce weight smartly down to probably 160-170 or so.
* reduce body fat down to probably: surely single digits, and ideally about 5-7%.
* reduce waist measurements down to roughly 32-34" waist (both upper and lower).

Weight

To reduce weight smartly, I figure I will drop 2.5 pounds per week, then reduce to 2.0 pounds, down to 1.5 pounds per week, then 1.0 then 0.5 pounds per week. Probably a long curve that extends down to "goal weight."

I have legitimately lost 42 pounds since 01-02-05. That is, ~106 days. For purposes of calculation I'll call it 15 weeks. THerefore, I have lost 2.8 pounds per week for the past 15 weeks. If I were able to maintain the same curve (unlikely because weight loss slows down through time) -- I would end up with another 42 pound loss (228-42 = 186 pounds) by about August 1. Now, if my weight loss suddenly was halved, such that I was only able to sustain a loss of approximately 1.4 pounds per week on average, I would then drop 21 pounds in 15 weeks, which would be (228-21=207). If it were reduced by 2/3rds, I would lose 14 pounds in 15 weeks for (228-14= 214).

So my August 1 goal is:

optimal: 186 pounds (additional 42 pound loss);
mid-term: 201 pounds (additional 21 pounds loss);
low-term: 214 pounds (additional 14 pounds loss).

November 1 goal, is likely, 21 / 14 / 7.

which would yield a range of 165 to 207 pounds. And this is the problem with making these predictions, everything is depends upon how soon you get to one plateau, and then trying to figure out the next plateu from there becomes exponentially more difficult.

Maybe a good clean goal is to try to reach 175 pounds by 01-01-2006.

GOALS FOR BODY FAT/ MEASUREMENTS - GIVEN THE ABOVE


I think at 200 pounds, I should probably drop another 5% or so in body fat -- so roughly 15-17% body fat. at 180 I suspect I would be in the 12-15 % range. 170 I suspect is something like 9-12%. 160 is probably 5-9% body fat [and, apparently ab territory].


As for measurements I suspect that 200 pounds (roughly august 1) will yield a 36" inch waist. 180 pounds will likely yield a 34" waist or so. 170 33" and 160 a 32" waist.

What is interesting is how much and to what degree my chest will decrease -- it's already gone from 53" to 44" (despite my wearing 50" suit coats -- I have big shoulders :-)).